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When Depression Has a Face: The Problem with Pattern Recognition

Why Brain Imaging Can't Diagnose Depression: Clinical Evidence Review

Things to Remember

  • Brain scans can't diagnose depression (yet): Scientists keep hoping to find a specific brain pattern that shows "this is what depression looks like," but every time they think they've found it, it either disappears when tested on different groups of people or shows up in other conditions like anxiety too. Your brain on depression doesn't look the same as someone else's.

  • Depression isn't one-size-fits-all: Some people with depression can't eat, others eat constantly. Some can't sleep, others sleep all day. We use the same word "depression" for all of it, but these might actually be different underlying problems in the brain - which is why finding one simple test is so hard.

  • Those fancy AI brain scan studies aren't better than talking to you: Some researchers used artificial intelligence to analyze thousands of brain scans and claimed 80-85% accuracy in detecting depression. But your doctor asking you questions with standard questionnaires is just as accurate, costs nothing, and doesn't require a multi-million dollar machine.

  • We don't know if brain changes cause depression or result from it: When scientists scan brains of depressed people and find differences, they can't tell if those differences were always there (making you vulnerable to depression) or if they appeared because you're depressed. It's like finding a messy room - did the mess cause the problem, or is it the result?

  • Good news - your brain can change when you feel better: When depression improves (whether from medication, therapy, or other treatment), brain scans show certain overactive areas calm down and underactive areas wake up. Interestingly, this happens with any treatment that works for you, not just one specific approach.

  • The bottom line for patients: Don't wait for a brain scan to "prove" your depression is real - it won't help with diagnosis or treatment decisions right now. What matters is how you're feeling and finding the treatment approach that works for you, whether that's therapy, medication, or both.

This article examines why brain imaging hasn't yet produced a reliable "fingerprint" for depression and what that means for diagnosis and treatment.

The brain is not a fingerprint.

Depression Biomarker Approaches: What's Been Tried and Why They Haven't Worked

Biomarker Approach What Was Measured Initial Promise Why It Failed to Generalize
"Depression Circuit" (2017) Reduced connectivity in lateral orbitofrontal cortex using fMRI Consistent pattern across multiple studies; clear involvement in reward processing Pattern appeared in anxiety and chronic pain too; failed to replicate across different populations
Default Mode Network Connectivity Resting-state brain activity and self-referential thinking patterns Altered connectivity consistently found in depression Changes also present in other conditions; too widespread to be specific diagnostic marker
Machine Learning Brain Scan Analysis (2015-2018) fMRI pattern recognition using AI algorithms 80-85% accuracy in detecting depression from brain images Accuracy dropped significantly in diverse populations; no better than standard questionnaires; requires expensive equipment
Salience Network Alterations Brain regions determining what deserves attention Observable differences in depressed patients Non-specific; overlaps with multiple psychiatric and neurological conditions
Executive Control Network Changes Connectivity patterns in decision-making and cognitive control regions Measurable disruptions correlate with depressive symptoms Changes too variable across depression subtypes; dimensional rather than categorical marker

Key Limitation Across All Approaches: Depression is heterogeneous - patients experience vastly different symptom profiles (appetite changes, sleep patterns, cognitive symptoms), suggesting multiple underlying processes rather than a single "depression signature" in the brain.

I've been thinking about that lately, especially after reading through some of the newer research on neuroimaging patterns in depression. There's this persistent hope - almost a wish, really - that we'll find the signature. The reproducible, reliable pattern that says: this is what depression looks like in the brain. And we keep not finding it.

Or rather, we keep finding it, and then it keeps dissolving when we look closer.

The Pattern That Wasn't

Around 2017, there was genuine excitement about something called the "depression circuit." Researchers at Weill Cornell had identified what they thought was a specific pattern of reduced connectivity between certain brain regions - particularly involving the lateral orbitofrontal cortex, a region involved in reward processing and emotional regulation. They published in JAMA Psychiatry. The pattern showed up consistently across multiple depression studies. It looked real.

Then other groups tried to replicate it with different populations, and the pattern... shifted. Sometimes it was there. Sometimes it wasn't. Sometimes it appeared in anxiety too. Sometimes in chronic pain. The specificity evaporated under scrutiny.

This keeps happening. Not because the original research was fraudulent or sloppy - it usually isn't - but because the brain is stupidly complex and depression is probably not one thing.

I say "stupidly complex" because there's this almost frustrating elegance to how interconnected everything is. You can't isolate the "depression network" the way you can identify the seizure focus in epilepsy, because depression seems to involve widespread changes across multiple systems rather than a discrete lesion you can point to. The default mode network - a set of brain regions active during rest and self-referential thinking - shows altered connectivity in depression. So does the salience network, which helps determine what deserves attention. And the executive control network. And the reward circuit. It's all of it, and none of it definitively.

Why Biomarkers Keep Failing Us

A biomarker, in medical terms, is an objective indicator of disease - something measurable that reliably tracks with the condition. Blood glucose for diabetes. Troponin - a protein released when heart muscle is damaged - for heart attacks. CRP, an inflammatory marker produced by the liver, for acute infections or inflammation.

Psychiatry desperately wants biomarkers. We've been chasing them for decades.

The problem is that psychiatric conditions aren't like pneumonia or fractured bones. They're dimensional rather than categorical. Depression exists on a spectrum of severity, with enormous heterogeneity in how it manifests. Some people lose appetite; others overeat. Some can't sleep; others sleep 14 hours a day. Some have racing anxious thoughts; others experience profound emptiness. We call it all "depression," but are we even talking about the same underlying process?

Probably not entirely. Which makes finding a single biomarker pattern nearly impossible.

There was a big push around 2015-2018 to use machine learning to identify depression signatures from brain scans. Feed the algorithm thousands of fMRI images from depressed and non-depressed brains, let it learn the patterns, then use it diagnostically. Some studies reported accuracy rates in the 80-85% range, which sounds impressive until you realize that clinical assessment using standardized questionnaires already achieves roughly the same accuracy, costs nothing, and doesn't require a $3 million machine.

Also - and this matters - those machine learning studies had a problem. They were mostly trained on relatively small, homogeneous populations. When you test the algorithms on different groups - different ages, different cultural backgrounds, different subtypes of depression - the accuracy drops significantly. The pattern doesn't generalize because the pattern isn't universal.

The Symptom Versus State Problem

Here's something that bothers me about neuroimaging in psychiatry: we're usually looking at people while they're ill. That seems obvious, but it creates an interpretive nightmare. If you scan someone's brain during an episode of major depression and find reduced activity in the prefrontal cortex - a region involved in executive function and emotional regulation - what are you actually seeing?

Is that the cause of depression? Or a consequence of being depressed?

Is it a stable trait marker - something that was always there, predisposing them to depression? Or a state marker - something that only shows up during active illness?

The only way to know would be to scan people before they become depressed, during depression, and after recovery. Then track those same individuals over years. A few studies have attempted this - longitudinal designs following at-risk populations - but they're expensive, time-consuming, and logistically brutal. Most neuroimaging research is cross-sectional: here's what brains look like now, in this group versus that group.

That tells you about correlation, not causation. And it definitely doesn't tell you whether intervening based on those findings would help.

What Actually Changes With Treatment

The research that interests me more - and there isn't nearly enough of it - looks at what happens in the brain when depression improves.

Some studies using PET scanning - positron emission tomography, which measures metabolic activity - have shown that successful treatment with either antidepressants or psychotherapy normalizes activity in certain brain regions. The subgenual cingulate cortex, an area involved in emotion regulation and often overactive in depression, quiets down. The dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, involved in executive control and often hypoactive, ramps up.

But here's the thing: those changes happen with any effective treatment. Medication, cognitive-behavioral therapy, even placebo in some cases. The brain changes, but the imaging doesn't tell you which treatment to use or predict who will respond to what.

That would be the holy grail: precision psychiatry guided by neuroimaging. Scan your brain, and we know whether you need sertraline or bupropion. Or whether you'd do better with therapy alone. Or whether you're in the subset that needs more aggressive intervention.

We're not there. Not even close. The heterogeneity problem keeps winning.

The Comorbidity Confusion

Most people with depression don't just have depression. They have anxiety too. Or ADHD. Or a history of trauma. Or chronic pain. Or insomnia that preceded everything else.

When you image someone's brain, you're imaging all of that together - the whole complex gestalt of their neurobiology and experience. Trying to tease out the "depression signal" from the noise is... well, it's like trying to hear one violin in an orchestra when everyone's playing different pieces.

There was a fascinating study in Nature Neuroscience around 2020 that looked at this directly. They used data-driven approaches - letting the patterns emerge from the data rather than testing preconceived hypotheses - to see if they could identify distinct neural subtypes of depression. What they found was that depression wasn't a single pattern. It was more like four or five different patterns, each associated with slightly different symptom profiles and treatment responses.

Which is interesting. And also kind of frustrating, because now instead of one pattern, we need to figure out which pattern someone has. And the patterns still aren't clean enough to guide clinical decisions.

I'm not being nihilistic about this. I think that kind of research is valuable. But it illustrates why the simple promise - scan the brain, diagnose precisely - hasn't materialized.

The Over-Pathologizing Risk

There's another concern I have with pushing neuroimaging into mainstream psychiatric diagnosis: it risks medicalizing normal human suffering.

Not all sadness is a brain disease. Not all anxiety represents pathological neural circuits. Sometimes life is genuinely difficult, and feeling terrible is an appropriate response. Grief, loss, stress, trauma - these produce real changes in brain function, but calling them "brain diseases" might not be accurate or helpful.

The DSM-5, our diagnostic manual, tries to account for this with duration criteria and functional impairment requirements. You're not diagnosed with major depression unless symptoms last at least two weeks and significantly interfere with your life. It's imperfect, but it's an attempt to distinguish normal sadness from pathological depression.

Brain scans don't make that distinction well. If you're grieving the death of a parent, your brain will look different than when you're okay. Does that mean you have a disease? Should we treat it?

I don't know. I think it depends. But I worry that relying too heavily on imaging might push us toward treating everything, even when treatment isn't what's needed.

Sometimes what's needed is time. Or support. Or changing circumstances. Not medication, not therapy - just life slowly becoming bearable again.

Where We Actually Are

The honest summary is this: neuroimaging has taught us enormous amounts about brain function and the neurobiology of psychiatric conditions. It's scientifically valuable. But it hasn't proven clinically useful for individual diagnosis or treatment planning in routine practice.

The major guidelines remain unchanged: imaging is not recommended for typical cases of depression, anxiety, or ADHD. Use it when there's a specific neurological concern - suspected tumor, stroke, dementia - but not as a standard part of psychiatric assessment.

That might change eventually. Maybe the heterogeneity problem gets solved. Maybe machine learning gets good enough to recognize subtypes and predict treatment response reliably. Maybe someone figures out how to integrate multiple biological markers - imaging, genetics, inflammatory markers, metabolic indicators - into a genuinely useful clinical tool.

But we're not there yet. And pretending we are does patients a disservice.

What we have now works reasonably well: careful history taking, standardized symptom assessment, thoughtful trial-and-error with treatments, and close monitoring of response. It's not perfect. It's not as precise as we'd like. But it's evidence-based, and it helps most people eventually.

The brain is not a fingerprint. Sometimes I wish it were - diagnosis would be so much simpler. But simplicity isn't always what we should want. The complexity is real. The variability is real. And our humility about what we don't yet understand needs to be real too.

FAQ

Q: Can a brain scan diagnose depression?

A: Not currently. While neuroimaging research has identified various brain patterns associated with depression - such as altered connectivity in regions like the lateral orbitofrontal cortex or changes in the default mode network - these findings haven't translated into reliable diagnostic tools. The patterns don't consistently replicate across different populations, and clinical assessment using standardized questionnaires achieves similar accuracy (80-85%) without requiring expensive imaging equipment. Depression diagnosis remains primarily clinical, based on symptom assessment and patient history.

Q: Why is it so hard to find a biomarker for depression like we have for other diseases?

A: Depression is fundamentally different from conditions like diabetes or heart disease. It's dimensional rather than categorical - existing on a spectrum with enormous variation in how it manifests. Some patients experience insomnia while others have hypersomnia; some lose appetite while others overeat. We use the term "depression" for what are likely multiple underlying processes, not a single discrete disease entity. Additionally, psychiatric conditions involve widespread changes across multiple interconnected brain systems rather than a specific lesion or measurable substance in the blood, making isolated biomarkers extremely difficult to identify.

Q: If brain imaging shows changes in depression, does that prove those changes caused the depression?

A: No - this is a critical distinction between correlation and causation. When we scan someone's brain during a depressive episode and find reduced prefrontal cortex activity, for example, we can't determine whether that's the cause of depression, a consequence of being depressed, or simply a state that exists during illness. To establish causation, we'd need longitudinal studies scanning people before, during, and after depression over many years - research that's expensive and logistically challenging. Most current neuroimaging research is cross-sectional, providing snapshots rather than causal pathways.

Q: Do antidepressants and therapy work differently in the brain?

A: Interestingly, they appear to produce similar brain changes when they work effectively. PET scan studies show that successful treatment - whether with antidepressants, cognitive-behavioral therapy, or even placebo in responsive patients - tends to normalize activity in similar brain regions. The overactive subgenual cingulate cortex (involved in emotion regulation) quiets down, while the underactive dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (involved in executive control) increases activity. This suggests these treatments may work through different initial mechanisms but converge on common final pathways in the brain.

Q: Should I request a brain scan to understand my depression better?

A: From a clinical perspective, brain imaging isn't currently useful for diagnosing or managing individual cases of depression. The research patterns we observe at the population level don't reliably apply to individual patients, and scans won't change your treatment plan. Depression management is most effective when based on your specific symptoms, medical history, response to previous treatments, and preferences regarding medication versus therapy. Clinical assessment remains the gold standard, and resources are better directed toward evidence-based treatments rather than investigational imaging.

Q: Does having brain changes in depression mean it's a "real" physical illness?

A: Depression is absolutely a real medical condition - but the question itself reveals a false distinction between "physical" and "mental." All psychological experiences have neural correlates; thoughts, emotions, and mood states all involve brain activity. The challenge isn't proving depression is "real" (clinical experience and research have established that definitively), but rather understanding the incredibly complex, interconnected systems involved. Depression appears to involve widespread changes across multiple brain networks - the default mode network, salience network, executive control network, and reward circuits - rather than a single identifiable abnormality. This complexity doesn't make it less real; it makes it harder to reduce to a simple pattern.

Q: Are machine learning and AI going to revolutionize depression diagnosis?

A: While machine learning studies from 2015-2018 showed promise, with some reporting 80-85% accuracy in identifying depression from brain scans, significant limitations remain. These algorithms typically trained on small, homogeneous populations, and their accuracy dropped substantially when tested on different demographic groups, ages, or depression subtypes. Additionally, this accuracy level is comparable to what we already achieve with standard clinical questionnaires - which cost nothing and don't require multi-million dollar equipment. AI may eventually contribute to understanding depression's heterogeneity or predicting treatment response, but it hasn't yet provided practical diagnostic advantages over current clinical methods. The technology remains more valuable as a research tool than a clinical one.

Q: If we can't see a specific pattern, how do we know depression treatment is working on the brain?

A: Treatment response is assessed through clinical improvement - reduced symptoms, improved functioning, and better quality of life - rather than brain imaging changes. However, research does show that when people respond to treatment, certain neurological changes occur: regions involved in emotion regulation normalize their activity patterns, regardless of whether treatment was medication, therapy, or other interventions. This suggests that while the path to improvement may vary, successful treatments converge on similar brain-level changes. As clinicians, we monitor treatment effectiveness through symptom scales, functional assessments, and patient-reported outcomes, which remain more reliable and practical than neuroimaging for individual patient care.

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Dr Terry Nguyen

Dr Terry Nguyen

MBBS MBA BAppSci

Dr Terry Nguyen is a Sydney-based Australian medical doctor providing comprehensive healthcare services including house calls, telemedicine, and paediatric care. With qualifications in Medicine (MBBS), Business Administration (MBA), and Applied Science (BAppSci), he brings a unique combination of clinical expertise and healthcare management experience.

Dr Nguyen is hospital-trained at Westmead and St Vincent's hospitals, ALS certified, and available 24/7 for urgent and routine care. He serves families across Sydney's Eastern Suburbs, CBD, North Shore, and Inner West, as well as providing telemedicine consultations Australia-wide. With over 2,000 Sydney families trusting his care, Dr Nguyen is committed to providing excellence in medical care with expertise, discretion, and personal attention.